The first attempt here at OTOTM to predict what the Warriors needed to make it into the playoffs was based on an estimate of the number of points required. Having now predicted the entirety of the final Pro 12 table based on the remaining 7 rounds (plus catch-up fixtures) it’s time to revisit Glasgow’s route to the post-season.
Fixtures during Six Nations period:
Thu 25 Feb – Dragons (A) – win
Sun 6 Mar – Blues (H) – BP win
Fri 18 Mar – Leinster (H) – win
Post Six Nations fixtures:
Fri 25 Mar – Ulster (H) – win
Sat 2 Apr – Treviso (A) – BP win
Fri 8 Apr – Zebre (A) – BP win
Sat 16 Apr – Scarlets (A) – losing BP
Fri 29 Apr – Zebre (H) – BP win
Sat 7 May – Connacht (A) – losing BP
This sequence of results give 34 points to add to the 35 already collected. As can be seen from the projected table this puts the Warriors right in amongst a very congested battle for playoff spots 2, 3 and 4…
As things stand immediately prior to Round 16 kicking off, Glasgow have taken 35 points from 13 games. From the same fixtures last season the championship-winning side took just a single point more – 36 in total.
Looking at the remaining fixtures the Warriors collected 33 points from these same 9 matches in 2012/13, 34 points in 2013/14 and 39 points in 2014/15 so a playoff spot is most certainly not beyond them. .
Every point will be crucial but fundamentally the first thought that should be in the heads of the players and coaches is to go out and win every single game and let the bonus points take care of themselves.
Such a monumental task ahead to make it. The thought of the final at Murrayfield is some dangling carrot though. I feel like Townsend has got a better handle on what his current squad are capable of, so will be very exciting if we can get on a wee run in the next couple of games.
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It’ll be interesting to see if he unleashes the backs a little bit more post 6 Nations with better conditions and pitches. Strength of the scrum + number of tries from front row have given the team another string to their bow but we’ll only really stretch other sides when we see the backs taking control of matches.
My predicted semifinalists would be Leinster, Scarlets, Connacht & Ulster/Glasgow, though I think we’re likely to just come up short this year – I don’t rate Munster at all (think they’ll finish 7th or 8th with Edinburgh). Leinster @ home is the big decider of whether we’re worthy, in my mind.
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It’s not the strongest Munster side – but as they showed last Friday they don’t lack for spirit and they have 4 games against bottom 4 clubs plus a home game against Edinburgh. Finish with a home match as well. The big one for them is their trip to the Sportsground when they’ll be on a revenge mission after getting turned over on their own patch by Connacht.