Projected final Pro 12 table

This has proved to be one of the hardest to predict seasons in the history of the Pro 12. As things stand 3 of the competitions’ former winners (including reigning champs Glasgow Warriors) sit outside the playoff spots. 50 out of this campaign’s 87 fixtures have seen the losing team pick up a bonus point – already more than last season (37) with 45 games still to be played – so 2015/16 has been dominated by fine margins. Looking ahead and projecting how the final table could pan out that looks likely to be the theme right through until the end of the season.

Here’s the official On Top Of The Moon projected final Pro 12 table – prior to Round 16 (click for large version):

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With just 2 points between the sides in 2nd to 6th places in the table above every single point is going to matter until the end of the season. Qualification for the playoffs could depend upon a hard won try or losing BP – or even denying an opponent one of those prizes in a close fixture.

Methodology:

  • Results for all remaining games have been projected based on an average margin for the past 5 seasons.
  • Margin is weighted towards more recent games.
  • Results for specific matches have been ‘tweaked’ to reflect current season form – in particular for Connacht and Scarlets.
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