With Glasgow in contention for 1st or 2nd place in their pool how the other groups play out could still have a big impact on the Warriors progression (or otherwise) in Europe. On Top Of The Moon takes a look at what effect the last 2 rounds of matches might be expected to have on the final standings.
Pool 2
This group has turned into a 3-way fight with Wasps, Connacht and Toulouse all taking points off each other. Despite that, the presence of Zebre means that at least 2 teams will make it to the quarter finals.
Key games Round 5
– Wasps 5-0 Toulouse
– Connacht 5-0 Zebre
Key games Round 6
– Zebre 0-5 Wasps
– Toulouse 5-0 Connacht
Connacht’s injury crisis may be their undoing in a crucial final day clash away to Toulouse – although it could come down to bonus points to separate the 2 sides.
Expected qualifiers
– Wasps 23 points
– Toulouse 18 points
Pool 3
Contrasting fortunes for the 2 most recent champions, Saracens are cruising to a home quarter final but Toulon’s shock loss to Scarlets has left them toiling to qualify.
Key games Round 5
– Scarlets 0-5 Saracens
– Toulon 5-0 Sale
Key games Round 6
– Saracens 4-1 Toulon
Saracens should go into the final round knowing that yet another win at Allianz Park will in all likelihood consign Toulon to an ignominious exit at the pool stages. Expect the men from Barnet to be ruthless in Round 6.
Expected qualifiers
– Saracens 27 points
– (Toulon miss out on 16 points)
Pool 4
Another 2-horse race that has been effectively reduced to a single runner by a French side’s inability to travel well.
Key games Round 5
– Leinster 4-0 Montpellier
Key games Round 6
– Castres 0-4 Leinster
– Montpellier 5-0 Northampton
The pool winners should be decided by a Leinster win over Montpellier in Round 5. That will then leave Jake White’s men toiling to make the latter stages.
Expected qualifiers
– Leinster 25 points
– (Montpellier miss out on 16 points)
Pool 5
Clermont have been the class of this pool by some distance. They did however fall to Ulster in possibly the game of the tournament so far – but disappointing results elsewhere have held back the Pro 12 side.
Key games Round 5
– Bordeaux 1-4 Clermont
– Exeter 1-4 Ulster
Key games Round 6
– Clermont 5-0 Exeter
– Ulster 5-0 Bordeaux
The big game for Ulster is that Round 5 clash against the Chiefs; win and qualification is in their own hands; lose and it’s highly likely their European dreams will be over for another season.
Expected qualifiers
– Clermont 26 points
– Ulster 18 points
On Top Of The Moon 