Match preview: Scotland v Wales, 6 Nations 2017

Overall
Backs – advantage Wales
With 5 British Lions on show there’s no lack of class in the backlines. 2013 was a while back though and, Stuart Hogg apart, this group’s form is maybe not quite at the same level as 4 years ago. That’s offset by some prospective candidates for this summer’s tour to New Zealand with players like Tommy Seymour, Liam Williams, Alex Dunbar and Dan Biggar bang in form during the crucial period when Warren Gatland has alleged he will make many of his selections.
Forwards – even
Probably the 2 sides in the Championship who are least set up for scrum dominance clash. Hopefully this means resets, milking penalties and general time-wasting are kept to a minimum and we get to see forwards unleashing the backlines. 2 lightish, very quick back rows could see a lot of spoiling around the breakdown though.
Subs – advantage Wales
This should be more even than in recent years but some key injuries (eg Dickinson, Nel, Laidlaw, Strauss) are still testing Scotland’s depth. Wales’ strongest bench options are Charteris and Faletau but they are being eased back in after injury. Sam Davies could be a game changer but Jamie Roberts seems an odd choice for a sub – in 17 minutes in this 6 Nations he’s failed to make an impact, carrying the ball once (for no gain) and missing both the tackles he’s attempted.

Wales Scouting Report:

• Rumours of  Leigh Halfpenny’s demise as a goal-kicker may have been premature. After missing his first kick against Italy he’s nailed 11 in a row for a 92% return. Scotland cannot afford to give him too many scoring opportunities.
• The Dragons have been kicking more than the sides Scotland have faced so far. Wales – 1 kick per 5.4 carries; Ireland 1 per 10.3; France 1 per 11.2. The Scottish back 3 may get more opportunities to return the ball when the Welsh hoof it, but they’ll also need to face a barrage of contestable kicks with quality operators like Biggar, Williams (L) and Halfpenny trying to retain possession.
• They may be playing a slightly more expansive version of Gatlandball these days but Wales only made 1 offload against England, potentially allowing the Scottish defence to be more aggressive in the way they attack the ball carrier.
• The Welsh lineout has been very good, only losing 1 of their own throws. They’ve heavily relied on getting Warburton and Tipuric up quickly though with the 2 flankers taking 16 of their 21 lineout wins. Scotland need to counter by getting their own back row options (Wilson and Barclay) in the air to compete.
• Wales make far more use of their centres than Scotland. Davies and Williams (S) have 42 carries from their opening 2 fixtures compared to just 16 for Dunbar and Jones. The home side need to involve these key players far more if they want to pressure the Welsh defence.
• George North is not the player he was – but he’s still dangerous. A try and 108 metres with ball in hand show what he can do when he’s given space. 2 turnovers and 2 missed tackles (none made) show what can happen when he’s put under pressure.
• 7 of the Welsh players (plus Alex Cuthbert, the 1 man dropped from their last outing) were born in April, a statistical anomaly that suggests there isn’t much to do in Wales in July…

Previous results
This will be the 9th time the sides have met at Murrayfield in the Six Nations with the head to head looking looking like this:

D W L W   L L L L

Most recent meeting in Edinburgh:

Scotland 23-26 Wales

24 players return from that fixture – 14 for the visitors and 10 for the home side. The biggest transformation for Scotland has been in the back row where none of the players from the 23 (Harley, Cowan, Beattie and Strokosch) return. For Wales it is the front row that has been overhauled with Scott Baldwin the only player involved in both 2015 and 2017 (Jenkins, Hibbard, Jarvis, James and Andrews the big lads missing).

Officials:
Referee: John Lacey (Ireland)
Assistant Referees: JP Doyle (England), Matthew Carley (England)
TMO: Rowan Kitt (England)

This will be the 6th time that Mr. Lacey has refereed Scotland. There have been dark mutterings across social media this week from Scottish fans as they have realised who is taking charge of the game at Murrayfield. The dark blues haven’t done too badly in terms of discipline when the Irish whistler has been in charge though – they’ve won the crime count 4 times out of 5, conceding 14 fewer penalties than their opponents and have yet to see a player sin binned (2 yellow cards for the opposition in that time). Maybe Saturday won’t be that bad after all…

Nobody was sent to the naughty step last year in Cardiff but prior to that there were 9 cards in the previous 5 encounters between these 2 sides. This fixture certainly hasn’t lacked for drama, excitement and controversy in recent years.

Picture courtesy of the excellent Adrian Henry for Rugby People – well worth a click!