Scotland v New Zealand, Autumn Tests 2017 – match preview

New Zealand scouting report

• World cup cycle
  One of the many things the All Blacks do well is to continuously bring through and develop new players. At the mid-point of the 2019 RWC cycle they are well into the process of shaping their 31-man squad. Of Saturday’s team only Aaron Smith, Sam Whitelock and Kieran Read started the last World Cup final but the standards set by that side have been maintained even as new talent has taken over with one eye on Japan.
• Heavy workload
  This will be the 13th Test match in the space of 23 weeks for New Zealand. That’s a lot of rugby and while they will no doubt benefit from so much time together there has to be some fatigue (both physical and mental) in there.
• Chink in the armour
  (And the straw clutching begins) New Zealand’s winning percentage of 75% so far this year is their lowest since 2009. If it hadn’t been for a late rally against South Africa they might have been coming into the game on a lowly(!) 67%. All joking aside Scotland have to find any way they can to humanise the All Blacks and their extraordinary level of success or the game will be lost before it even kicks off.
• How to beat the All Blacks
  With difficulty! The British and Irish Lions edged out New Zealand with a stifling defensive intensity that held the Kiwis try-less for the first time in 3 years. Australia’s recent victory was based on holding onto the ball and forcing the All Blacks to make almost twice as many tackles (although worth noting the Aussies maintained a 91% tackle completion rate themselves).The model for Scotland is more likely to be in the style of Australia but it will need an increase in accuracy in attack and a reduction in defensive errors too if they are to try and emulate that performance to any degree.

Previous meetings at Murrayfield

In the 82 years since New Zealand’s first visit these two sides have clashed on 17 occasions at Murrayfield with 15 wins for the men in black and 2 draws.

Last meeting 15th November 2014:

Scotland 16 – 24 New Zealand

New Zealand turned out what might charitably have been called a development side the last time they touched down in Scotland. 6 Kiwis return from that fixture – Ryan Crotty, Sonny Bill Williams, Luke Romano, Sam Cane, Wyatt Crockett and TJ Perenara.

Stuart Hogg, Alex Dunbar, Tommy Seymour, Finn Russell and Jonny Gray all featured in a game which felt like it might have been Scotland’s best chance of turning over the All Blacks. Late errors proved costly as the home side first missed the opportunity to go ahead then conceded a try that put the game out of reach.

Only 10 Scots have ever scored tries against New Zealand at Murrayfield. Given the improvements in their attacking play over recent years it would be nice to see at least 2 or 3 names added to that list on Saturday.

Officials:

Referee: Matthew Carley (England)
Assistant 1: Romain Poite (France)
Assistant 2: Ian Davies (Wales)
TMO: David Grashoff (England)

This will be the second time Mr. Carley has refereed Scotland with the previous occasion coming in last season’s Autumn Internationals when he sampled the delights of Kilmarnock for the Test against Georgia. If the experience hasn’t put him off too much then another unfussy and controlled performance like that will help keep the contest flowing.

The 13 Warriors on the pitch will be wary of transgressing near Mr. Davies’ touchline –  the Welsh whistler has refereed Glasgow 10 times in the last 3 seasons and awarded 9 yellow cards, 1 red card and 3 penalty tries against the Warriors!

* Finn Russell drop kicked a goal against Edinburgh after the ball toppled off the tee but that was still counted as a penalty as it was not from open play!

Picture credit – Adrian Henry. For more of Adrian’s excellent pictures from all levels of Scottish rugby check out rugbypeople.net