Need to Know: Glasgow Warriors v Scarlets, PRO14 match preview 2020/21

KO 5.15 at Scotstoun Stadium
Sunday 11th October 2020
Live on Premier Sports 1

• The 232 day gap between matches at Scotstoun is the most for Glasgow since they moved in permanently in 2012* – the previous longest break during that period was 140 days.
• There are just 8 players in the two XVs who also started when these teams last met 1 year and 1 week ago.
• Glasgow have a slight edge in the head to heads but might be relying on their bench to make the difference.
• Zander Fagerson is the Warrior to Watch as he returns to the lineup after an unscheduled week off.

Teams

Head to Head:

Back 3 – ADV Scarlets
Centres – ADV Scarlets
Half Backs – ADV Glasgow
Front Row – ADV Glasgow
Second Row – ADV Glasgow
Back Row – ADV Scarlets
Subs – ADV Glasgow

Once A Warrior:

While he never got a Warrior number by playing for the first team, Javan Sebastian was with the club as a partnership player (with Ayr) during the 2015/16 season so he should certainly be familiar with the Scotsoun surroundings.

Matchday Milestones:

Richie Gray will be the third player in the space of eight days to make his 50th appearance for the Warriors. Last weekend Oli Kebble and Gerorge Turner brought up their half centuries a little over 3 years since their debuts. It’s taken Richie just a smidgen longer – 4,237 days (or 11.5 years if you prefer) since his own first game for Glasgow back in March 2009.

The machine that is Rob Harley is the first man to yet another milestone, becoming the first Warrior to make 200 starts for the club. As with most appearance stats, Rob is way out in front on this one – second all-time is Graeme Morrison with 156 starts, followed by Al Kellock in third with 152.

Warrior to Watch:

Zander Fagerson’s contribution to the Glasgow pack is absolutely crucial. He has developed his scrummaging to the point where he is now likely to be Scotland’s first choice for the upcoming internationals. It’s his workrate around the pitch that makes the biggest difference though. Last season he averaged 40% more carries + tackles than the Warriors’ other tighthead props.

The giant prop is also excellent over the ball at the breakdown, winning some crucial turnovers for the club. Combined with the presence of either Fraser Brown or George Turner at hooker, Zander’s abilities allow the coaches to be more flexible in the blend they require from the Glasgow back row. With a single run out for the Warriors prior to Test match duty fans should make the most of the elder Fagerson’s performance on Sunday evening!

Glasgow at home to Scarlets in the PRO12/14 era:

• 4 wins
• 4 losses
• 0 Try BPs
• 3 Losing BPs
• 19 points out of a possible 40 (48%)
• That return of 48% of available points is the lowest rate for Glasgow at Scotstoun against any club since the inception of the PRO12.

Previous match-up:

Officials:

Referee: Frank Murphy (IRFU, 36th Championship game)
AR: Hollie Davidson (SRU)
AR: Ben Blain (SRU)
TMO: Andrew McMenemy (SRU)

Mr Murphy’s regular season record for 2018/19 in the PRO14:

Matches – 10 (all refs – 147)
Average penalty count – 18.9 per game (all refs – 18.4)
Home penalty percentage – 52% (all refs – 52%)
Average card count – 1.3 per game (all refs – 0.9)
Penalties per card – 15 (all refs – 19)

Mr Murphy does like a card – as Alex Allan found to his cost when these two sides met at Scotstoun a couple of years back. Two sin bins for Scarlets’ players did mitigate the damage from that early red for Glasgow though.

Previous encounters with the former Connacht player also suggest he has little patience with shenanigans at scrum time. Oli Kebble and Zander Fagerson will need to very clearly show the referee the picture he wants to see if costly penalties are to be avoided.

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* Prior to this era of Scotstoun being Glasgow’s full-time home ther was a rather longer gap of 5,437 days between matches, stretching from an Inter-District fixture against Edinburgh in October 1997 until they played a PRO12 game against Scarlets in September 2012.